While forecasts can never be 100% accurate, the goal for biopharmaceutical forecasters should be to minimize the degree of inaccuracies as much as possible. To reduce the impact of inaccurate forecasting over the life cycle of a product, companies need to focus on those variables that they have the most control over.
From discussions with pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry leaders, it is clear that demand forecasting is a significant challenge when planning biologic drug substance production.
Novel therapeutics such as gene and cell therapies, nanoparticles, and combination products requiring targeted delivery, novel treatments for wound healing, cardiovascular disease, and bone regeneration, and new medical device technologies call for innovative surgical procedures in preclinical trials to determine safety and efficacy.
By thinking outside of the box, CDMOs can create a flexible and scalable business model that offers a level of assurance in the face of forecast variability.
The Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS), developed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to simplify and accelerate the drug development process, helps companies when they file for bioequivalence of dosage forms based on in vitro dissolution testing. The objective of the BCS system is to predict in vivo performance of drugs from in vitro measurements of solubility and permeability. The system has evolved to classify low-soluble drugs according to their permeability (BCS Class II or IV). A compound’s classification (I through IV) is indicative of its potential bioavailability.
Genentech, a member of the Roche Group , recently announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Xolair (omalizumab) to treat moderate to severe persistent asthma in children six to 11 years of age, who have had a positive skin test or in vitro reactivity to an airborne allergen and have symptoms that are inadequately controlled with inhaled corticosteroids4